• 28Dec

    Drilling in ANWR illustration: Tic-Tac and Football fieldI’m Not Emeril has a great post in which he does a bunch of calculations in AutoCAD (he’s an engineer) and figures out that the area of land in the ANWR that would be used for drilling purposes is equivalent to a tic-tac on a football field. Great research and great post!

  • 27Dec

    We had a great Christmastime with my Mom’s family. There are 12 children in my Mom’s family. Every (except a single incarcerated son) single descendant of David Miller (my Mom’s dad) was there: Grandpa, Grandma, uncles, aunts, cousins, brothers, sisters, etc. There was 54 of us. Most of them slept at our house. (Yes, we are blessed with a good sized house.) We had an incredibly good time.

    One of my favorite portions (beyond staying up with cousins til 5, 4, and 3 AM on various nights) was discussing theology and politics with my uncles and cousins and Grandpa. I have an illustrious raft of uncles that include: a professor of philosophy, a holder of multiple degrees (Bachelor’s in History, Bachelor’s in English, Master’s in History) from multiple universities, two former missionaries, a holder of a Master’s of Architectural Design, an RN, and a pastor who is the head of the Hispanic branch of the Nazarene Church of the United States. We discussed this issue, along with Romans 13, welfare, Hillary Clinton, nuclear physics, quantum mechanics, Intelligent Design, fine tuning, irreducible complexity, Behe, global poverty, and many other topics. It was awesome!

    Update: Katrina had fun with cousins too! *grin*

  • 27Dec

    Newsweek Assistant Managing Editor Evan Thomas: “Is this attack [on public broadcasting's budget] going to make NPR a little less liberal?”
    NPR legal correspondent Nina Totenberg: “I don’t think we’re liberal to begin with, and I think if you would listen, Evan, you would know that.”
    Thomas: “I do listen to you and you’re not that liberal, but you’re a little bit liberal.”
    Totenberg: “No, I don’t think so. I don’t think that’s a fair criticism, I really don’t - any more than, any more than you would say that Newsweek is liberal.”
    Thomas: “I think Newsweek is a little liberal.”

    - Exchange on Inside Washington, June 26

    Source: Media Research Center’s The Best Notable Quotables of 2005: The 18th Annual Awards for the Year’s Worst Reporting

  • 27Dec

    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

    -Amendment I, US Constitution

    A couple of reasons as to why the recent Intelligent Design ruling, that said it was unconstitional for the government to teach ID in public schools, is wrong:

    Teaching Intelligent Design as fact is not “establishing” religion. At most, it reinforces religion. “Establishing a religion” is generally understood (at the time the Constitution was written and in the present) to be to either start a new religion or to establish an official state church. Teaching ID does neither.

    It isn’t Congress that is mandating the inclusion of ID in public school curriculum. The first amendment is limited in application to Congress. (”Congress shall make no law…”) It says nothing about the Executive or Judicial branches or the State and Local governments.

    What I have said above applies to most all the rulings that have been made on the basis of “seperation of church and state” (a phrase that doesn’t even appear in the Constitution).

    Furthermore, teaching Intelligent Design as an alternate theory is certainly not unreasonable. Even totally disproven theories are taught in science class to provide perspective. How much more a controversial theory that has much support?

  • 27Dec

    Matt Lauer in Baghdad: “Talk to me…about morale here. We’ve heard so much about the insurgent attacks, so much about the uncertainty as to when you folks are going to get to go home. How would you describe morale?”
    Chief Warrant Officer Randy Kirgiss: “In my unit morale is pretty good. Every day we go out and do our missions and people are ready to execute their missions. They’re excited to be here.”
    Lauer: “How much does that uncertainty of [not] knowing how long you’re going to be here impact morale?”
    Specialist Steven Chitterer: “Morale is always high. Soldiers know they have a mission. They like taking on new objectives and taking on the new challenges….”
    Lauer: “Don’t get me wrong here, I think you are probably telling me the truth, but a lot of people at home are wondering how that could be possible with the conditions you’re facing and with the attacks you’re facing. What would you say to those people who are doubtful that morale can be that high?”
    Captain Sherman Powell: “Sir, if I got my news from the newspapers also, I’d be pretty depressed as well.”
    - Exchange on NBC’s Today, August 17

    Source: Media Research Center’s The Best Notable Quotables of 2005: The 18th Annual Awards for the Year’s Worst Reporting

  • 26Dec
    Categories: Blogosphere Comments: 0

    The 28th edition of the Carnival of Personal Finance is up.

  • 22Dec

    I can do anything, you just have to pay for it.

    -a Golden Rule Travel agent talking on the phone to a customer

    btw, we did a ticket for Clarence Thomas the other day.

  • 18Dec

    The National Symphony Orchestra playing Handel’s Messiah at the Kennedy Center was an awesome experience.

    I saw my first Mark Warner for President - 2008 bumper sticker the other day.

    UCLA has just released a report that shows, despite liberal denials, that, Yes, there is media bias, and yes, that bias is overwhelmingly liberal.

    Update: Redskins beat scalped the Cowboys last night. Redskins played Mammas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Cowboys through the PA system.

  • 17Dec

    “There is no one Democratic voice . . . and there is no one Democratic position”

    -House Minority Leader, Nancy Pelosi (D) said of the Iraq war in an interview with Washington Post reporters and editors. Pelosi said Democrats will produce an issue agenda for the 2006 elections but it will not include a position on Iraq.

    Source: Washington Post

  • 15Dec

    This post was written by the following guest blogger: Amy is a 21-year-old homeschool graduate and music major. She lives in Florida, where she spends her days teaching piano, being with people, volunteering, studying, knitting, reading, cleaning, drinking coffee, and praying about a return to SouthEast Asia.

    Wow…I don’t even know where to begin!

    The movie was awesome (in the truest sense of the word). I think it’s the most amazing film I’ve ever seen…

    Disney actually did it right!! They stayed so close to the book, and even the added scenes felt like they belonged. The “It is finished” touch was powerful. There was truth in that movie, and the spiritual parallels were beautiful.

    I loved the characters. The White Witch was chilling. (Some of my friends pointed out that the white witch is supposed to be dazzlingly beautiful. Evil is seldom ugly at first glance. I hadn’t thought about it, but they do have a good point.) The kids were precious…their personalities were just as they are in the books…they seemed like a real family…they even looked like brothers and sisters! I loved Mr. Tumnus. Aslan was perfect. Not a tame lion, but a good lion.

    The humorous touches were fun, even if the wolves and beavers seemed a trifle cheesy at times.

    The scenery was dazzling! The soundtrack was majestic.

    The Stone Table scene was heartbreaking.

    The last third or so of the movie was my favorite part…I kept getting chills down my back during the battle scene!

    I think C.S. Lewis would be pleased with it. Last night I saw Narnia come to life in an incredible way.

  • 14Dec

    “Today, they have created a myth in the name of Holocaust and consider it to be above God, religion and the prophets…If you committed this big crime, then why should the oppressed Palestinian nation pay the price? This is our proposal: if you committed the crime, then give a part of your own land in Europe, the United States, Canada or Alaska to them so that the Jews can establish their country.”

    -Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

    By the numbers:

    Jews killed in the Holocaust: 6 million+

    Area of Israel: 20,770 km2
    Area of Middle-Eastern Muslim states: 8,511,714 km2
    Ratio of ME Muslim area to Israel area: 500:1

    Population Density of Israel: 333/km2
    Population Density of Iran: 41/km2
    Population Density of Saudi Arabia: 12/km2

    Years Jews have been without a country to call their own: 2000+
    Years Muslims have been without a country to call their own: 0

  • 13Dec

    My 9 year old sister is a most impressive character. She loves to speak with a British accent and loves to read. She has started working on Gibbon’s the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, a 924 page book filled with sentences such as: “The union of the Goths and Romans might have fixed for ages the transient hapiness of Italy; and the first of nations, a new people of free subjects and enlightened soldiers, might have gradually arisen from the mutual emulation of their respective virtues. But the sublime merit of guiding or seconding such a revolution was not reserved for the reign of Theodoric: he wanted either the genius or the opportunities of a legislator and while he indulged the Goths in the enjoyment of rude liberty, he servilely copied the institutions, and even abuses, of the political system which had been framed by Constantine and his successors.” She reads it with either a bound dictionary or a laptop open to Dictionary.com at her side. What convinced her to read it is that Thomas Edison read and comprehended the book at age 9.

  • 13Dec

    Here are the latest numbers on my mutual fund investments:

    Eaton Vance Greater India :: -1.99%
    Fidelity Capital Appreciation :: -0.23%
    Fidelity Dividend Growth :: +3.08%
    Fidelity China Region :: +5.02%
    Fidelity Japan Smaller Companies :: +16.99%
    Fidelity Latin America :: +34.51%
    Fidelity Select Energy :: +9.69%
    Fidelity Select Energy Service :: +32.55%

    My average gain thus far has been +13.68%.

    One note on the India fund: Eaton Vance had a 5.25% front end load. This is reflected in the -1.99%. Thus, the gain is actually positive if you ignore the front end load. I just say this to let you know that, Yes, it is trending upward. Normally, it is not wise to choose a fund with a load (front end or back end) because funds without loads have historically performed just as well as those without loads. However, I was (and still am) very excited about India’s economy. I searched and searched and the Eaton Vance fund was the only one I could find that concentrated on India.

    Another note on Capital Appreciation fund, it did this on Friday:

    FDCAX - Fidelity Capital Appreciation Mutual Fund - 3 month chart

    That kind of 9% drop is the kind of thing that you just have to gut out. It would be incredibly foolish of me to sell my Capital Appreciation right now a mutual fund that has just dropped. A similar thing This happened with Energy and Energy Service a couple of months back. It has rebounded plus some. Let me please re-emphasize: Don’t try to time the market with mutual funds. (Unless you are a pro.) You will only get burned. The odds are that FDCAX the fund that dropped will rebound too.

    My only reason for posting this is to encourage people, especially young people to save and invest. I have gained 13.68% in 6 months. Extrapolated that is 27.36% a year. If you contribute $250 a week and figure a 10% return (that is the average aggregate return of the stock market for many, many years) on investment, you will have $829,000 in 20 years. If you up that by $50 a week, you will have $995,000 after 20 years. Over a period of 30 years at $300 a week, that’s $2.9 million.

    Update: Dad and I were suspicious that the surprise drop in FDCAX was for real. There was no major financial news and no apparent reason for it to drop. Dad called Fidelity this afternoon and found out that it was a distribution. Mutual Funds are required to, once a year, distribute all the capital gains and dividends earned in the past year. During the year, these profits (rise in share price and dividends) are figured into the mutual fund “share” price. The share price is not set by a separate market process, but is set by a formula taking into account the cash on hand and value of the stocks in the fund’s portfolio. Thus, with this big distribution to fund shareholders, the price obviously dropped by the percentage that the fund went up in the past year. When you set up your account, you can set whether you want them to reinvest the distributions or put them into your account as cash. I had the reinvest option selected.

    Thanks to atthecrux, a financial guru who is (or was, I forget) majoring in financial planning, for helping me with some questions and concepts contained in the above paragraph.

    At the same time he was on the phone with Fidelity, Dad got them to manually look up the cost information for all his mutual funds and input it into the website so that he could track his gains above cost basis. He was pleasantly surprised to see the figures. His best fund was one which he first bought in 1999: Fidelity Low Priced Stock which has a gain above cost basis of +184.18% over that 6-7 year period. That’s 26.31% annually. The fund that has the lowest gain above cost basis (I don’t have the time to figure out each fund’s annual gain above cost basis to get you the worst performing fund.) is Fidelity Select Energy Service which he bought in August of ‘05 and which has a 17.63% increase above cost basis.

    Another important aspect of investment is diversification. I alluded to this above when I said that Dad had too many funds for me to figure out which has the lowest annual cost basis. He has a total of 19 funds spread across two traditional IRAs, a SEP-IRA and a Profit Sharing Keogh. I am under diversified right now and over-leveraged in energy funds. I could take a beating if energy tanked. However, when I started investing, I saw a golden opportunity in energy and jumped in with as much as I could pull together (not much on my salary!). It paid off, but I really need to diversify further. With every paycheck, I am working to do so. I’m not going to sell any of my positions, but I am exclusively adding funds (as the paychecks come in) which will diversify the composition of my portfolio.

    Update #2: Here are some more investment figures: $50 a week at 10% gets you $165,000 in 20 years, $495,000 in 30 years, and $1.39 million in 40 years. $100 a week at 10% gets you $331,000 in 20 years, $991,000 in 30 years, $2.78 million in 40 years. You can do these calculations yourself at this simple investment calculator. Notice how much faster it grows toward the end? That’s why it’s so important to start early! $1 now will accomplish what $10 will in a couple of years.

    I have written about my mutual fund investments in the past: Investments and Investments Update

  • 12Dec
    Categories: Political Comments: 5

    The London Times:

    ISRAEL’S armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.

    The order to prepare for a possible attack went through the Israeli defence ministry to the chief of staff. Sources inside special forces command confirmed that “G” readiness - the highest stage - for an operation was announced last week.

    A “massive” Israeli intelligence operation has been underway since Iran was designated the “top priority for 2005″, according to security sources.

    The Mossad is undisputably in the top three intelligence agencies in the world. They share this space with the CIA and the KGB/FSB. Many experts would argue that the Mossad deserves the top spot as the best intelligence agency in the world. They are, indisputably, the best at penetrating Muslim/Arab organizations. If this is their top priority, they will have top notch intelligence on this. Just like they did with Osirak. No question.

    Cross-border operations and signal intelligence from a base established by the Israelis in northern Iraq are said to have identified a number of Iranian uranium enrichment sites unknown to the the IAEA.

    This is interesting. This indicates that the U.S. is working closely with Israel on this. That is a good sign.

    If a military operation is approved, Israel will use air and ground forces against several nuclear targets in the hope of stalling Tehran’s nuclear programme for years, according to Israeli military sources.

    It is believed Israel would call on its top special forces brigade, Unit 262 - the equivalent of the SAS - and the F-15I strategic 69 Squadron, which can strike Iran and return to Israel without refuelling.

    Very, very interesting! Without refueling!?! Hmmm… food for thought.

    Also intriguing is the use of ground forces. This makes sense to reduce civilian casualties as Iran has purposely located the facilities in civilian areas.

  • 07Dec

    Wow! I read a very interesting article on Global Warming in TIME this morning. I was like, “This is what I have been trying to say all along!” I didn’t know TIME would be so forthright with the facts on Global Warming!

    Global Warming is a verifiable fact, as liberals like to tell you. That much is true. However, some of the extra hypotheses surrounding the causation of Global Warming are just that: a hypothesis; quite shaky hypotheses at that. The thrust of the politically-motivated, added hypothesis is this: burning hydrocarbons is causing global warming. This hypothesis makes a vast historical assumption that is fast being proved untrue. Any time science makes a foray into history, assumptions are made. Because of the intricate (and absolutely fascinating) math required to form some of these greatly extrapolated conclusions, the smallest inaccuracy in the assumptions can majorly change the conclusion.

    The hypothetical addendum to Global Warming makes a historical assumption in that it assumes that the mean temperature increase that we are seeing is not part of a natural cycle. It assumes that puny man is the cause of this increase in temperature. This assumption is made despite the fact that we have accurate, comprehensive temperature records from less than 100 years back. We also haven’t had measurements of the intensity of the Gulf Stream until recently. The TIME article:

    What’s more, nobody was even measuring those currents before 1957. Says Broecker: “We don’t know how much the flow bounces around normally.”

    The big problem is political. It’s the PC thing to be crazy about the environment. Most scientists agree that there was a great Ice Age. Yet, this is ignored when the proclamation is made that the current temperature fluctuation is man-made. They weren’t burning fossil fuels back then. What brought on that Ice Age? (btw, paradoxically, conventional wisdom is that global warming will bring on another ice age. Thus, what caused the global warming that caused that ice age?)

    How is global warming going to cause an ice age? First of all, a couple of quick facts: London is 400 miles further north than Montreal and Paris is further north than Fargo, North Dakota, but both don’t get nearly as cold as their comparable, further south American counterparts. The reason? The Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is a surface current that brings warm water to the northeastern Atlantic. It relies on the salinity of the water in that it gets saltier as it goes because the sun evaporates water and the salinity increases. Water with a high salinity is heavier than water with a lower salinity. When it finally gets up north, the water is heavier and it sinks, gets cooled by the cold north, and heads back south. This is what makes Europe so much warmer than America at a comparable latitude.

    Now that you have some more background, back to the question; how is global warming going to cause an ice age? Well, this is how the theory goes: As the temperature rises, the polar ice caps begin to melt. This adds freshwater to the Atlantic. This decreases the salinity of the Atlantic which slows down the “elevator effect” that drives the Gulf Stream. Europe freezes.

    There is a simple answer. If global warming is really causing global freezing, then the global freezing will balance the global warming and things will remain at an equilibrium. Global freezing will cause the polar ice caps to refreeze which will increase the salinity of the water which will rev up the Gulf Stream which will warm up Europe again. It’s all in the natural cycles.

    Furthermore, another byproduct of global warming is increased evaporation, thus increased rainfall, and thus increased output by rivers into the sea. Water running over the land leeches salt from the soil and has been constantly increasing the salinity of the oceans over the years. Extra rainfall would accelerate this addition of salt to the ocean. This would also serve to balance the melting of the ice caps.

    There is further evidence (to be approached cautiously; we’re dealing with historical extrapolations here) and an emerging consensus that there have been multiple significant temperature fluctuations over the past 70,000 (*grin*) years. The TIME article:

    Back in the 1980s, Wallace Broecker, a geophysicist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, was trying to understand why temperatures in Greenland had plunged dramatically several times over the past 70,000 years. His theory: fresh water, perhaps from melting glaciers, might have diluted the ocean’s salinity, making it harder for cooling water to sink and return southward to pick up more heat. That could shut off the entire “conveyor belt” of water that keeps Europe temperate. It’s hard to determine precisely what would have caused such a big thaw 70,000 years back, but we do know that today global warming is causing more meltwater to stream into the North Atlantic from glaciers and older sea ice, which is lower in salt. Could the conveyor belt stop again? [emphasis added]

    So, they’re saying it happened many times in the past naturally, but this time around it’s man-made? Hogwash.

    God knew what he was doing when he designed the natural cycles of nature that balance each other out.